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Hay fever, Allergy season: Pollen Dispersal Forecast for 2017 in Japan

Post: Wednesday February 1, 2017

It is forecasted that pollen dispersal this year will start around the same time as an average year throughout Japan. The amount of pollen dispersal is expected to be slightly more or less or the same level as in an average year. However, early preparations for the dispersal and keeping your eyes on the dispersal forecasts are recommended in Western Japan and the Tokai regions, where the dispersal is forecasted to be more than last year. Careful attention to the forecasts are also recommended in Kanto-Koshin regions, even though the dispersal there may be slightly less than last year.
The latest pollen dispersal forecast for 2017 announced by the Japan Weather Association on January 17th, 2017 is as follows:

Hay fever 2017

The latest pollen dispersal forecast for 2017 announced by the Japan Weather Association on January 17th, 2017 is as follows:

Nationwide Overview:

It is forecasted that cedar pollen dispersal in the spring of 2017 will start in the beginning of February and thus hay fever season will begin in the Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Tokai districts. This timing is around the same time as an average year. It is also forecasted that the temperature in January and February in 2017 will be an average level throughout Japan. Consequently it is anticipated that the start of pollen dispersal will be the same as in an average year throughout Japan.
The amount of pollen dispersal in 2017 is forecasted to be slightly less in Northern Japan and Kanto-Koshin regions, the same level as in an average year in the Hokuriku and Chugoku regions, and slightly more than an average year in Western Japan including Kinki and Tokai regions. However, compared to last year (2016), it is forecasted to be extremely more in the regions of Kyushu, Shikoku, Kinki, and Tokai; to be more in the regions of Chugokui; to be slightly more in Hokuriku regions; while to be slightly less in Kanto regions, and to be less in the regions of Tohoku, and to be extremely less in Hokkaido.

The Amount of Pollen Dispersal:

The amount of pollen dispersal is affected by two of the following factors:

1. Weather conditions - especially sunshine duration, precipitation, and temperature between June and July of the previous year. For example, if the temperature is very high and the duration of sunshine longer, cedar trees grow very well and this causes a large amount of pollen dispersal in the following year.

2. The amount of pollen dispersal alternates each year. In other words, the year after significant pollen dispersal tends to be less pollen dispersal.

Last summer (2016), there were many areas of high temperature throughout Japan, and the duration of sunshine were more throughout Japan except for the regions of Kanto and Chugoku, where it was the same level as an average year. In Western Japan, where the weather conditions were better for flower buds to form, the amount of dispersal this year is anticipated to be slightly more. In addition in the regions of Kyushu, Shikoku, Kinki, and Tokai where there were many areas having had less or extremely less dispersal in the last year, this year's dispersal is forecasted to be more extreme compared to last year.

Outlook in the regions

RegionPollen classificationThe start time of pollen dispersalDispersal amount
Compared to Last year (Regional Average)
Dispersal amount
Compared to Average year (Regional Average)
Weather condition in Summer 2016
Hokkaido White birch - Less (50%) Extremely Less (30%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:More
Rainfall:Extremely More

Tohoku Cedar Cypress Late February - Mid-March Less (50%) Slightly Less (80%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:More

Kanto-Koshin Cedar Cypress Early - Late February Slightly Less (70%) Slightly Less (80%) Temp:High
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:More
Hokuriku Cedar Cypress Mid - Late February Slightly More (140%)

Same as in Average year (90%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:More
Rainfall:Average

Tokai Cedar Cypress Early - Mid-February Slightly More (140%) Slightly More (140%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:More
Rainfall:Average

Kinki Cedar Cypress Mid-February Extremely More (290%) Slightly More (110%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:More
Rainfall:Average

Chugoku Cedar Cypress Early - Mid-February

More (170%)

Same as in Average year (100%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:Average

Shikoku Cedar Cypress Early February Extremely More (260%) Slightly More (110%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:More
Rainfall:More

Kyushu Cedar Cypress Early February More (270%) Slightly More (110%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:More
Rainfall:More

*Explanation of words about Dispersal amount and Weather condition

Extremely More More than 200% of Last year (Average year)
More More than 150% and Less than 200% of Last year (Average year)
Slightly More More than 110%and Less than 150% of Last year (Average year)
Same More than 90% and Less than 110% of Last year (Average year)
Slightly Less More than 70% and Less than 90% of Last year (Average year)
Less More than 50% and Less 70% of Last year (Average year)
Extremely Less Less than 50% of Last year (Average year)
Last year Dispersal amount in the year 2016
Average year Average amount during the past 10 years (the years 2006 - 2016)
Temp Temperature
Sunshine Duration of sunshine
Rainfall The amount of rainfall

※The figures of Tokyo are based on the pollen dispersal forecast announced by Tokyo Metropolitan Government on January 17, 2017

 

 

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