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Hay fever, Allergy season: Pollen Dispersal Forecast for 2016 in Japan

Post: Thursday January 21, 2016

It is forecasted that pollen dispersal this year will start earlier than a typical year in Western and Eastern Japan, and around the same time as an average year in Northern Japan. The amount of polled dispersal is expected to be less or the same level as in an average year. However, early preparations and keeping your eyes on the dispersal forecasts are recommended in the Kanto-Koshin regions, where pollen dispersal is forecasted to be slightly more than last year.

Hay fever 2016



The latest pollen dispersal forecast for 2016 announced by the Japan Weather Association on January 14th, 2016 is as follows:



Nationwide Overview:

It is forecasted that cedar pollen dispersal in the spring of 2016 will start in the beginning of February and thus hay fever season will begin in the Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Tokai, and Kanto districts. This timing is faster than in an average year. It is also forecasted that the temperature in January and February in 2016 will be an average level or higher in Western and Eastern Japan, which will push forward the start of pollen dispersal in these districts. Consequently it is anticipated that the start of pollen dispersal in the regions from Kyushu to Kanto will be earlier than in an average year, while in Northern Japan the start will be the same as in an average year.

The amount of pollen in 2016 is forecasted to be slightly less or the same level as in an average year throughout all regions in Japan except for in the Tohoku regions, where it is forecasted to be slightly more than an average year. However, compared to last year (2015), it is forecasted to be slightly more or extremely more in the regions of Kyushu, Shikoku, Tokai, and Kanto; to be the same level in the Chugoku region; and to be slightly less in the regions of Kinki, Hokuriku, Tohoku, and Hokkaido.



The Amount of Pollen Dispersal:

The amount of pollen dispersal is affected by two of the following factors:


1. Weather conditions - especially sunshine duration, precipitation, and temperature between June and July of the previous year. For example, if the temperature is very high and the duration of sunshine longer, cedar trees grow very well and this causes a large amount of pollen dispersal in the following year.

2. The amount of pollen dispersal alternates each year. In other words, the year after significant pollen dispersal tends to be less pollen dispersal.

Last summer (2015), there were many areas of high temperature in Northern and Eastern Japan, but the duration of sunshine and the amount of rainfall were the same level as an average year. In Western Japan there were many areas of low temperature, less duration of sunshine, and more rainfall which resulted in a more difficult environment for flower buds to form. Consequently this year’s dispersal is anticipated to be slightly more than an average year in the Tohoku regions where the weather conditions were better for flower buds to form. But throughout other regions in Japan the dispersal is anticipated to be less than in an average year. It is forecasted to be less than half the amount of an average year in the regions of Kyushu, Shikoku, Kinki, and Hokkaido.

 

 

Outlook in the regions

RegionPollen classificationThe start time of pollen dispersalDispersal amount
Compared to Last year (Regional Average)
Dispersal amount
Compared to Average year (Regional Average)
Weather condition in Summer 2015
Hokkaido White birch - Slightly Less (80%) Extremely Less (40%)

Temp:Average
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:Average

Tohoku Cedar Cypress Late February - Mid-March Slightly Less (80%) Slightly More (120%)

Temp:High
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:Less

Kanto-Koshin Cedar Cypress Early - Late February

*Tokyo's 23 wards:
February 8 - 9


*Tama area in Tokyo:
February 11 - 15
Slightly More (110%)

*Tokyo's 23 wards:
Same as Last year - Slightly More (90-120%)


*Tama area in Tokyo:
More - Extremely More(180-240%)
Same as in Average year (90%)

*Tokyo:
Same as in Average year - Slightly More (110%)
Temp:High
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:More
Hokuriku Cedar Cypress Mid - Late February Slightly Less (80%) Slightly Less (80%)

Temp:Average
Sunshine:Average
Rainfall:Extremely Less

Tokai Cedar Cypress Early - Mid-February Slightly More (130%) Less (60%)

Temp:Average
Sunshine:Less
Rainfall:Extremely More

Kinki Cedar Cypress Mid - February Slightly Less (70%) Extremely Less (40%)

Temp:Low
Sunshine:Less
Rainfall:Extremely More

Chugoku Cedar Cypress Early - Mid-February Same as Last year (90%) Less (50%)

Temp:Low
Sunshine:Less
Rainfall:Average

Shikoku Cedar Cypress Early February Slightly More (120%) Extremely Less (40%)

Temp:Low
Sunshine:Extremely Less
Rainfall:Extremely More

Kyushu Cedar Cypress Early February More (160%) Extremely Less (40%)

Temp:Low
Sunshine:Extremely Less
Rainfall:Extremely More



*Explanation of words about Dispersal amount and Weather condition

 

Extremely More More than 200% of Last year (Average year)
More More than 150% and Less than 200% of Last year (Average year)
Slightly More More than 110%and Less than 150% of Last year (Average year)
Same More than 90% and Less than 110% of Last year (Average year)
Slightly Less More than 70% and Less than 90% of Last year (Average year)
Less More than 50% and Less 70% of Last year (Average year)
Extremely Less Less than 50% of Last year (Average year)




Last year Dispersal amount in the year 2015
Average year Average amount during the past 10 years (the years 2006 - 2015)
Temp Temperature
Sunshine Duration of sunshine
Rainfall The amount of rainfall

 

 

※The figures of Tokyo are based on the pollen dispersal forecast announced by Tokyo Metropolitan Government on January 21, 2016



 

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